Lula da Silva won the second round of the Brazilian presidential elections last Sunday in the most significant contest since the country’s re-democratization. In the first round of voting, none of the presidential candidates received an outright majority, and Jair Bolsonaro and Lula advanced to the second round with 43.2% and 48.4% of the votes, respectively. Lula defeated Bolsonaro in the runoff election with 50.9% of the legal vote — a tight result which illustrates the country’s political polarization. Lula received 2.139.645 million more votes than Bolsonaro, and will be the only politician to attain a third term as president.

While the incumbent was part of a global phenomenon of the rise of far-right governments, Lula’s triumph in Brazil is consistent with the recent leftward shifts in South America, as seen in Colombia, Argentina, and Chile. Lula’s campaign centred on the recalling of the economic and social progress made by the previous governments led by his Worker’s Party, the reestablishment of environmental policies to halt the destruction of the Brazilian Amazon rainforest and indigenous populations, the fight against poverty, and the restoration of national unity. In turn, Bolsonaro followed his motto ‘God, homeland, and family’ with proposals that reinforced conservative Christian values, such as maintaining the criminalization of abortion.

The campaign strategies that led to Bolsonaro’s election in 2018 and continued to underpin his administration were comparable to those adopted by leaders such as former U.S. president Donald Trump, Turkey’s president Recep Erdogan, and Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orbán. Bolsonaro encouraged political polarization by propagating narratives such as the threat of a communist danger that would impoverish the nation and destroy Christian conservative values. In addition, the Supreme Court and the Supreme Electoral Court were attacked in an effort to destabilize institutions and weaken checks and balances. Bolsonaro ‘romanticized’ Brazil’s military dictatorship (1964 – 1985) in order to valorise the past and evoke nostalgia steeped in nationalism.

The re-election of  Bolsonaro would have been significant for international far-right movements since he adheres to an ultraconservative ideology. The presidency was viewed as a guarantee that this movement’s interests would be represented in international forums to thwart a more progressive international agenda. On various occasions Bolsonaro’s government received encouragement from these international leaders, demonstrating the impact that his defeat would have on the ultra-conservative movement as a whole. This happened, for instance, during the visit of Katalin Novak (Hungary’s president) to strengthen the far-right relations between Hungary and Brazil, as well as with the assistance offered by Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó for Bolsonaro’s re-election.

Bolsonaro has always relied on propaganda when seeking power, promising to restore state authority and Christian values. His 2018 campaign was marked by the spread of disinformation on social media platforms, making extensive use of personal data to micro-target messages. During the 2022 electoral campaign, the technological resources changed but the spread of misinformation and disinformation continued and remained a significant issue. Data indicates a surge in the use of Instagram reels and TikTok videos for political marketing purposes, as well as the immense power of influencers for political participation – either by overtly proclaiming support or by being implicitly associated with the ideology supported by a particular candidate. Among the most widely disseminated items of fake news were stories that cast doubt on the security of electronic voting machines, claiming their use would lead to electoral fraud. Bolsonaro and other members of his team repeatedly disseminated this information while failing to acknowledge the broad view of experts that these machines were safe, in an effort to leave room to reject the election results in the event of a loss and to incite violent public uprisings.

On the other hand, there have been improvements in how society and institutions have dealt with false news campaigns since 2018, such as actions led by influencers who have exposed disinformation and revealed inconsistencies in the information disseminated by the Bolsonaro government, thereby raising public awareness. In addition, the recently enacted constitutional provision concerning the right to protection of personal data, as well as the Brazilian GDPR, which has been in effect for the past two years and has been integrated into the electoral legal regime, provided for a more powerful system of protection for the electoral process to combat disinformation and illicit political advertising.

The most popular social media network in Brazil pledged to provide innovative solutions for moderating content in the 2022 elections and to collaborate with Brazilian authorities. However, election-monitoring NGOs conducted tests utilizing fraudulent and hate speech content that violated the platform’s regulations and discovered that it was authorized without limitation. In addition to the difficulty of regulating internet political campaigns, it was also difficult to prevent the incumbent from using the state infrastructure to secure his re-election. In the past weeks, numerous acts of voter suppression utilizing state resources have occurred, including the use of the federal traffic police (PRF) forces on election day to erect roadblocks and illegal vehicle checkpoints to prevent voters from reaching polling stations in the Northeast (Lula’s electoral stronghold ).

Despite everything, democracy has prevailed. Early on Sunday evening, Lula’s victory became official in Brazil and was promptly acknowledged by several foreign leaders such as Presidents Joe Biden (US), López Obrador (Mexico), Emmanuel Macron (France) and Ursula von der Leyen (EU). Since the results were released, Bolsonaro has neither admitted loss nor questioned the legitimacy of the elections.

Now that ‘Bolsonarism’ has been institutionalized by a majority of Congress members, it will not be easy to protect Brazil’s fragile democracy. In addition, as we observed during the election process, the nation is extremely vulnerable to misinformation and the influence of ultraconservative leaders. ‘Bolsonaro was an existential threat’. However, after four years of a political climate that has seen families and friends separated, 33 million Brazilians plunged into food insecurity, 690 thousand people die of COVID-19 due to the government’s total indifference and contempt, as well as the country’s environmental devastation and the escalation of racial and gender violence, many Brazilians have renewed their hope for better days.

Anna Barbalho is a Master’s student in Data Protection and Privacy Law at the School of Law and Government, Dublin City University and a former Legal Advisor and Researcher at IDEMA/RN (State Department for the Environment).

The views expressed in this blog reflect the position of the author and not necessarily that of the Brexit Institute Blog.