Dr Simon Sweeney* (University of York)
Following Labour’s sweeping election victory, foreign and security policy should be at the heart of the promised reset in UK-EU relations after 14 years of Conservative government. Britain’s relations with its European allies will be fundamental to how Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s administration approaches its security and defence responsibilities.
Prior to hosting the fourth summit of the European Political Community last week, the UK seemed more focused on irregular migration than on defence. The former is a Europe-wide crisis that may require Britain to opt in to the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum and deepen its involvement with Europol and EU border security. Such choices would be problematic, but in defence the challenges may be even greater and more urgent.
Former NATO Secretary General Lord George Robertson has defined China, Russia, Iran and North Korea as a ‘deadly quartet’ against which the North Atlantic Alliance must strengthen its defence. NATO faces huge uncertainties, not least the outcome of the US Presidential elections in November, but also on the scale of financial and material commitment required of its European members given the contemporary threat scenario outlined in NATO’s 2022 strategic concept.
A reduced American willingness to tolerate European free riding is clear. What is perhaps less well understood by European electorates is the extent of Europe’s military weakness. Years of post-Cold War complacency and reduced spending undermined European capability and war-readiness. Now, according to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, 23 of NATO’s 32 members are hitting the target of two per cent of GDP defence spending, but achieving material benefits from this will take time. There are also concerns that even current increases in spending may not be sufficient.
The recent Washington summit identified Russia as the leading threat to NATO, and described China as Russia’s ‘decisive enabler’ in its illegal war against Ukraine, through the transfer of dual use (civilian-military) technologies and continuing trade with Moscow. China has been conducting joint military drills in Belarus, underlining Beijing’s close ties to the government in Minsk, Moscow’s primary European ally, from whose territory Russia attacked Kyiv in February 2022.
Keir Starmer has launched a defence and security review under defence secretary John Healey, chaired by Lord Robertson with support from former US Presidential advisor Fiona Hill and former Joint Force Commander Sir Richard Barrons.
The review will highlight cuts in Britain’s armed forces considered catastrophic by many commentators, as well as acute shortfalls in equipment and defence hardware. Rectifying these deficiencies will be extremely difficult if economic growth remains weak. Moreover, defence spending competes with other sectors, not least health and social care, that the public usually considers more deserving.
The security review will look beyond the war in Ukraine to wider defence responsibilities. It must point towards the UK being fully integrated into the European security architecture. This will require supporting NATO’s essential partnership with the European Union, not merely by working with the EU but by joining its common security and defence policy and seeking membership of the European Defence Agency. The UK should commit to the European defence technological industrial base (EDTIB), a framework to support enhanced material capability, utilising common research and development, and enabling economies of scale.
Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson insisted that the Trade and Cooperation Agreement – the basis of Britain’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU – should exclude foreign and security policy. Now, in parallel with the security review, the new government should seek a formal foreign and security policy arrangement with the EU as a matter of urgency. This will better equip both sides to enhance Europe’s security through NATO, always the cornerstone of European defence.
Mark Leonard, Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, argues that a UK-EU partnership on foreign and security policy is vital. He affirms that defence is not only about armed forces personnel, missiles, planes and tanks, but it must embrace ‘sanctions, energy security, migration and joint action against gangs and people traffickers.’ Both the EU and the UK would benefit from a Horizon-type research base focused on defence needs.
As well as the security review, there are other signs of a fresh approach to the UK’s role in the world following the chaotic breakdown of trust during the Johnson and Truss years. Labour’s new foreign secretary David Lammy has articulated what he calls ‘progressive realism’. Writing in Foreign Affairs, Lammy envisages the UK as a major geopolitical player while insisting that the UK will not rejoin the EU single market and customs union. Ruling this out, even as public support for Brexit has ebbed, risks prolonging weak growth and low productivity.
Lammy’s call for a Lancaster House-type arrangement with Germany, echoing the UK’s defence partnership with France, is a tall order given both countries’ military weaknesses and disagreements within Germany’s traffic light coalition over Chancellor Scholz’s intended reboot of military capability announced in February 2022. A British lead in a revitalised Commonwealth seems especially fanciful given that India has no interest in helping the UK to enhance its relevance.
At the EPC meeting, Keir Starmer delivered warm words about Britain’s relationship with its continental neighbours. His promised reset should involve a clear-sighted analysis of the severity of the threats facing Britain and its European allies, and a detailed assessment of how to upgrade military capability. Lord Robertson’s review should convince the government to seek the closest possible security and defence relationship with the EU. How this can be achieved while remaining outside the EU single market remains questionable, so a British government will surely have to address this issue eventually.
It is imperative that the UK plays a full part in ensuring that European NATO is fit for purpose, able to defend European interests, even as the US downgrades its commitment to Europe, a likely scenario no matter what the result of the upcoming Presidential elections.
*Dr Simon Sweeney is Professor of International Political Economy and Business at the University of York.
The views expressed in this blog post are the position of the author and not necessarily those of the Brexit Institute blog.