Elettra Bargellini (Dublin City University)
On 14 May 2024, the DCU’s Brexit Institute organised an online event entitled ‘EU Strategic Autonomy Two Years After the War in Ukraine’. Prof. Daire Keogh (President of Dublin City University) opened the event. He highlighted that the ongoing war in Ukraine has profoundly impacted the EU and the lives of all EU citizens, particularly by raising questions about the EU’s strategic autonomy. He stressed the timeliness of addressing these issues, especially in a context where Russia is opening new fronts in the war and where EU elections are scheduled in a month’s time. Thus, he expressed gratitude to the Brexit Institute for organising this high-level event, which represents the latest in a series of events organised by the institute at DCU. He concluded by thanking President Dalia Grybauskaitė (Former President of Lithuania) for taking part in the event.
Una Mullally (Journalist, Irish Times) moderated the event. After a welcoming introduction to the speakers, she gave the floor to President Dalia Grybauskaitė (Former President of Lithuania). President Grybauskaitė started by pointing out that the concept of strategic autonomy had been under discussion long before the start of the conflict in Ukraine. She noted that in the Baltic states, there had been significant scepticism towards this concept. These concerns were primarily about the US’ influence on the military capabilities of NATO (about 80% of military capacity still is American) and the EU’s inadequacy in the defence sector compared to the US.
However, after the war in Ukraine, she emphasised, the discourse surrounding strategic autonomy has changed radically. Indeed, the conflict exposed not only the EU’s weaknesses in the defence sector but also in other areas such as energy, food security, digital, and health. She argued that these are the main pillars of an open autonomy strategy that the EU needs to prioritise. She also addressed how the geopolitical landscape is fracturing, with globalisation shifting towards regionalization. This trend is visible not only in the EU but also in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. In conclusion, President Grybauskaitė reflected on how these new geopolitical tensions will not be solved easily, heightening the necessity for the EU to adopt an open strategic autonomy encompassing the aforementioned sectors.
Afterwards, Dr. Cécile Pelaudeix (Senior Researcher, Sciences-Po Grenoble) examined the interrelation between geopolitical events, such as Brexit and Russian military actions in Crimea, and the increasing importance of EU strategic autonomy. Dr. Pelaudeix highlighted that the concept of strategic autonomy extends to the economic sector. She focused on China’s impact on EU economic security arguing that this relates mainly to China’s control over critical infrastructure (such as ports and airports), key technological and industrial sectors, and supply chains in the EU. She also pointed out that, in the context of the war in Ukraine, the relationship of China with Russia further complicates the achievement of EU strategic autonomy. She sees the Chinese industrial support to Russia as strongly correlated with the growing convergence between Beijing and Moscow to reshape the world order more than the direct supply of weapons (a red line that China seems not to have crossed until now). She concluded by stating that geoeconomic interdependence was expected to bring about peace and security, but evidence shows that, on the contrary, it is increasing vulnerability and bringing insecurity. Thus, looking for open strategic autonomy might end up exacerbating power imbalances between the EU as well as protectionism abroad.
Subsequently, Dr. Niall Moran (Assistant Professor of Law at the School of Law and Government at DCU and Deputy Director of the DCU Brexit Institute) showed how the idea of open strategic autonomy has been integrated into the EU trade and economic policies. Dr. Moran focused on three key points. Firstly, he emphasised that the EU strategic autonomy agenda has been significantly shaped by the introduction of several instruments aimed at ensuring a level playing field in the EU single market and strengthening the EU’s trade defence toolbox. He made reference to the EU Trade Enforcement Regulation and the Foreign Subsidy Regulation. In particular, focusing on the latter, he reflected on the implications for EU competitiveness in the global landscape having now the ability to conduct inspections to ensure non-EU entities are as transparent about their funding as EU entities. In this regard, he cited the most recent investigation involving a Chinese company, Nuctech. Second, he delved into the varying visions of strategic autonomy among EU Member States, arguing that there are clashes especially within areas such as energy independence and EU merger policy. Third, he emphasised the need to identify strategies to conclude new trade agreements with trading partners, aiming at revitalising an open approach on trade policies. This entails examining why certain agreements have not materialised and how to approach future negotiations differently.
The last speaker, Prof. Ming Du (Professor in Chinese Law and the Co-Director of Global Policy Institute, Durham University) reflected on the evolution of EU’s trade and investment policies and how China perceives them. He pointed out that the current EU trade policy seems to deviate from the traditional model which aimed to reduce international trade barriers, fostering an open, transparent, and non-discriminatory multilateral system. This forces a reassessment of the assumptions about the international economic order. Moreover, he highlighted that instead of focusing on international cooperation and multilateral governance, the EU has currently adopted a unilateral approach to pursue strategic autonomy. In this regard, he referred to the new EU regulations (such as the Foreign Subsidy Regulation), arguing that they apply the objectives and values of the EU, act unilaterally on the regulation of the international economy, and force other countries to alter their behaviour. He also pointed out that after being discredited for decades, industrial policy is making a comeback in the EU and other parts of the world. He questioned what is new with US industrial policy and how the EU can ensure its effectiveness this time. Thus, Prof. Du discussed the implications of these EU trade policies for the future of international economic law. From his perspective, the WTO will survive, but there is little hope for a significant revival of negotiations or of its paralyzed dispute settlement system. In conclusion, he predicted an increase in regional free trade agreements and informal trade agreements, as countries need this legal framework to continue cooperation.
Elettra Bargellini is a PhD candidate at the School of Law and Government of Dublin City University. Her research interests lie in the areas of EU Law, International Trade Law, EU State Aid Law, and WTO Law.
Watch the event on YouTube here.